Vienna, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

547
FXUS61 KRLX 191040
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
640 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A tropical airmass remains over the region with several short
wave troughs passing through. Locally heavy showers and storms
over increasingly compromised soils may lead to flash flooding.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 225 AM Saturday...

A persistent stationary frontal boundary that has been draped across
the region this morning is expected to lift north as a warm front
this afternoon. While this occurs, a series of shortwaves, more
evident at H700, will traverse the area. These mid to upper-level
disturbances will interact with a deeply moist and unstable airmass
already in place, providing necessary forcing to trigger isolated to
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the afternoon
and evening hours.

Parameter evaluation shows SBCAPE exceeding 2500 J/Kg, PWATs around
2.0 inches, and poor deep layered shear. Previous rainfall has
partially saturated the terrain at some places. These ingredients
are enough to support heavy downpours and localized flash flooding.
For tonight, the lack of heating is compensated by some deep
layered shear in the order of 35 to 40 knots across the northern
sections of our CWA. This ingredient could enhance any
nocturnal shower into a storm, so kept 60 to 70 percent PoPs for
tonight. WPC continues highlighting the entire area under a
Slight Risk for Excessive rainfall through tonight.

The latest NBM guidance reflects this, with the highest PoPs ranging
from 40 to 60 percent across the southern half of the area today.

With the ground already partially saturated, it will take less
rainfall to cause localized flooding. However, convection
appears to be more isolated or widely scattered than previous
days. Therefore, we have decided to hold on a Flash Flood Watch
for now for Saturday.

As for some of the stronger storms, localized damaging winds will be
possible from wet microbursts. Any wind threat should wane into the
overnight, but heavy rain will remain a threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 AM Saturday...

A cold front pushes into the region from the northwest early
Sunday. Modest instability will develop ahead of the cold front
with SBCAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg, deep layered shear from 40 to
50 knots mainly across the north, and PWATs about 1.8 inches.
These ingredients will support widespread precipitation for
Sunday. The environment becomes dominated by northwest flow
aloft. SPC maintain the area highlighted under a Marginal Risk
for severe thunderstorms for Sunday. Although heavy rain will be
the main threat, damaging winds could also result with the
stronger storms.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 225 AM Saturday...

The aforementioned cold front sinks south of the area by Monday,
allowing a surface high pressure to build in. However, a series of
shortwaves are expected to ride under northwest flow aloft.
This environment may be conducive to classic severe
thunderstorms. Although the majority of the time will be dry,
strong thunderstorm may still possible during the afternoon and
evening hours.

A drier weather pattern is on the horizon with surface high
pressure building strong Tuesday through Thursday. This will
allow to the heat to build up with heat index values reaching
the upper 90s by Wednesday and exceeding 103 at many spots on
Thursday. At least heat advisories may be needed for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 640 AM Saturday...

A moist and unstable airmass remains in place, leading to a pattern
of overnight low stratus/dense fog and afternoon convection.

IFR/LIFR conditions at EKN, PKB and CRW will quickly improve to
MVFR/VFR by 12-13Z. VFR conditions will then prevail through the
late morning and early afternoon. However, strong diurnal heating
will trigger isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
by early afternoon, continuing into the evening.  While not all
terminals will see a direct hit, any storm moving over the area will
produce brief but significant deterioration to IFR/LIFR in heavy
rain, along with gusty, erratic winds. Have included VCTS at
most terminals as it is difficult to time isolated weak
convection. Convection is most likely expected between 18Z
Saturday and 01Z Sunday.

Convection will diminish after sunset, with VFR conditions returning.
The pattern of overnight fog and low stratus is expected to repeat
late tonight into Sunday morning.

Light and variable to calm surface flow overnight will become light
west to southwest on Saturday. Light southwest flow aloft will
continue light west through Saturday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of improving conditions due to
lifting fog or low status may vary from forecast. Timing,
locations and intensity of showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon could vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS
CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SAT 07/19/25
UTC 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
EDT 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    H    L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions are possible under showers and storms Sunday.
IFR/LIFR conditions under dense fog possible Sunday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...ARJ